{"id":211,"date":"2026-05-15T11:25:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:25:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/?p=211"},"modified":"2026-05-17T20:48:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T18:48:05","slug":"ndryshimet-klimatike-epidemia-dhe-rritja-e-popullsise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/ndryshimet-klimatike-epidemia-dhe-rritja-e-popullsise\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar ve n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
7\u201310 minuta<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi nispeten yeni bir konu olsa da, tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6kenleri 200 y\u0131ldan fazla \u00f6nce ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f Thomas Malthus\u2019un yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda ve insanl\u0131k durumuna ili\u015fkin karamsar de\u011ferlendirmelere verdi\u011fi yan\u0131tlarda yatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1766-1834 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f \u0130ngiliz iktisat\u00e7\u0131 Robert Thomas Malthus\u2019un teorisi, en genel tan\u0131m\u0131yla, g\u0131da \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu nedenle ya\u015fam refah\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 teorisine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Teoriye g\u00f6re, insan n\u00fcfusu mevcut g\u0131da kaynaklar\u0131ndan geometrik olarak (2, 4, 8, 16, 32\u2026) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, g\u0131da kaynaklar\u0131 aritmetik olarak, yani \u2018do\u011frusal\u2019 olarak (1, 2, 3, 4, 5\u2026) b\u00fcy\u00fcr. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 \u200b\u200bnoktas\u0131 ne olursa olsun, bu iki e\u011fri sonunda kesi\u015fecek ve g\u0131da kaynaklar\u0131 yetersiz hale gelecektir. E\u011fer g\u0131da kaynaklar\u0131 k\u0131t olursa, sefalet ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacakt\u0131r; toplumun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli kesimi bunlara ula\u015famayacak ve bu da bizi \u00f6l\u00fcme g\u00f6t\u00fcrecektir. Yani, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcler hayatta kalacak, zay\u0131flar elenecek ve ancak bu \u015fekilde denge korunacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malthus teorisine g\u00f6re, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fam standard\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olumlu dengeleyici mekanizmalar devreye girer. Malthus\u2019a g\u00f6re, tarih boyunca meydana gelen k\u0131tl\u0131klar, salg\u0131nlar ve sava\u015flar, bu dengesizli\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131ran olumlu \u00f6nlemlerden baz\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r. Salg\u0131nlar ve k\u0131tl\u0131klar meydana geldi\u011finde, yine en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, en dayan\u0131kl\u0131 veya ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olanlar hayatta kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malthus, sefaleti ve a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 insan\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz kaderi olarak g\u00f6ren karamsar bir iktisat\u00e7\u0131yd\u0131. Malthus taraf\u0131ndan 18. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda ortaya at\u0131lan \u201cN\u00fcfus Teorisi\u201d, korkun\u00e7 ve karamsar bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furdu ve bir\u00e7ok ekolojist, biyolog, iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ve devlet adam\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi. Charles Darwin de bunlardan biriydi. 1838\u2019de biyografisinde Malthus\u2019un \u201cN\u00fcfus \u0130lkesi \u00dczerine Bir Deneme\u201d adl\u0131 kitab\u0131n\u0131 okudu\u011funu ve bu kitab\u0131n \u201cdo\u011fal se\u00e7ilim\u201d fikirlerinin olu\u015fmas\u0131nda etkili oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftir. Malthus\u2019un Darwin\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi \u00fczerindeki etkisi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olsa da, toplumdaki m\u00fccadeleye dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn Darwin\u2019in do\u011fadaki m\u00fccadelenin \u00f6nemini anlamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u015f\u00fcphesizdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zamanla, Malthus\u2019un teorisinin tamamen do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ekonomiler h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131, teknoloji ve sanayi geli\u015fti ve g\u0131da \u00fcretiminde \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 teknolojiler kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 Malthus\u2019un geometrik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Malthus\u00e7ular\u0131n 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sefalet ve kriz, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir sonucu olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Malthus k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir iktisat\u00e7\u0131yd\u0131 ve durum bu \u015fekilde geli\u015fti\u011finde, teorisi tarihte k\u00f6t\u00fcmser iktisat teorilerinden biri olarak yerini ald\u0131. Bununla birlikte, Malthus\u2019un tezine farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lardan bakmak ve daha iyi bir gelecek i\u00e7in ne yapabilece\u011fimiz sorusuna bir cevap bulmak gereklidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 bin y\u0131l \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen Tar\u0131m Devrimi\u2019nin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda, yery\u00fcz\u00fcndeki insan n\u00fcfusunun 5 milyon oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor. Malthus tezini ortaya koydu\u011funda, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 1 milyara yak\u0131nd\u0131. O zamanlar do\u011fa bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kadar tahrip olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve yerle\u015fimler bu kadar yo\u011funla\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn n\u00fcfus 7,7 milyara, yani Malthus\u2019un zaman\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun 6,7 kat\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde g\u0131da \u00fcretimi \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak bu \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bozacak, do\u011fay\u0131 kirletecek, g\u0131da yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek ve gelecek nesillerin ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racak \u015fekilde ilerliyor. \u00d6te yandan, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler N\u00fcfus B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc modellerine g\u00f6re, insan n\u00fcfusunun 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyarda istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn k\u00fcresel, sanayi sonras\u0131, postmodern ve kapitalist d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere g\u00f6re yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olsa da, hala artmaya devam ediyor. Kullan\u0131lan teknoloji sayesinde g\u0131da \u00fcretiminde art\u0131\u015f olsa da, su, toprak, mineraller, fosil kaynaklar\u0131, bitkiler, hayvanlar ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok do\u011fal kayna\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla t\u00fcketiliyor. B\u00f6yle bir durumda, tar\u0131m ne kadar sanayile\u015fmi\u015f olursa olsun, sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00fcfus bask\u0131s\u0131, a\u00e7l\u0131k, do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n t\u00fckenmesi, salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin neden oldu\u011fu kurakl\u0131k, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan m\u00fclteci krizleri veya tam tersine \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve sava\u015flar a\u00e7l\u0131\u011fa, hastal\u0131\u011fa ve sefalete neden olmaktad\u0131r. Bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fi, 1,4 milyar n\u00fcfusa sahip \u00c7in\u2019den t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131d\u0131r. N\u00fcfusun katlanarak artmas\u0131, do\u011faya uygulanan bask\u0131 ve do\u011fan\u0131n s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sonucu hayvan ya\u015fam alanlar\u0131n\u0131n yok edilmesiyle birlikte, hayvan vir\u00fcsleri insanlara kolayca bula\u015fmakta ve salg\u0131nlara neden olmaktad\u0131r. Bu durum, Malthus\u2019un hakl\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do\u011fan\u0131n tahribat\u0131, ekolojik dengenin bozulmas\u0131, karbon emisyonlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, yanl\u0131\u015f tar\u0131m uygulamalar\u0131, plans\u0131z kentle\u015fme ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tehlikeli, geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir durumda olmas\u0131, bilim insanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bir ger\u00e7ektir. \u00dclkelerin izlemesi beklenen politikalar\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikard\u0131r. Sermaye ihtiyac\u0131yla birlikte sermaye t\u00fcketimindeki art\u0131\u015f ve kapitalist mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re \u00fclkelerin s\u00fcrekli b\u00fcy\u00fcme zorunlulu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda arzular, sanki ihtiya\u00e7m\u0131\u015f gibi insanlara dayat\u0131ld\u0131 ve bunlar t\u00fcm sorunlar\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 haline geldi. As\u0131l soru, bu t\u00fcketim sarmal\u0131ndan nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve bilime kulak veren politikalar\u0131n ne zaman uygulanaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u270e \u015eeyma Celina Suroy<\/p>\n\n\n

\"Prizma<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi nispeten yeni bir konu olsa da, tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6kenleri 200 y\u0131ldan fazla \u00f6nce ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f Thomas Malthus\u2019un yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda ve insanl\u0131k durumuna ili\u015fkin karamsar de\u011ferlendirmelere verdi\u011fi yan\u0131tlarda yatmaktad\u0131r. 1766-1834 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f \u0130ngiliz iktisat\u00e7\u0131 Robert Thomas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gaia","entry-card--landscape"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Thomas_Robert_Malthus_Wellcome_L0069037_-crop-edited.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=211"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":229,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211\/revisions\/229"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizmamedium.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}